On Thursday agins for the fourth time rupee tanked to an all-time low against the strengthening dollar. The action of the rupee followed the inflation data released in the US overnight.
Rupee Falls All-Time Low Against Dollar Again
The data which caused this hype overnight shows US CPI inflation at 9.1 per cent in June which is higher than the estimated 8.8 per cent.
Sugandha Sachdeva, Researcher at Religare Broking said, “the unabated red-hot inflation data in the US has raised the case for a full percentage point rate hike at the Fed’s meeting later this month, given the Fed chair’s stance that inflation must be brought down as quickly as possible.”
Further said, “The aggressive policy course by the US Fed to curb rising price pressures is exacerbating fears of a weakening growth outlook and leading to risk aversion in the markets. Besides, we have seen a relentless rise in the dollar index, while the euro has been hit hard as it tumbled below parity against the dollar for the first time in almost 20 years. This has led to a big moment depicting strength in the greenback as markets are expecting the US Fed to raise rates way more swiftly than its peers.”
As Per ICICI Direct Depreciation Is Expected
According to ICICI Direct, “the rupee is expected to depreciate amid a strong dollar and risk aversion in global markets. Market sentiments are hurt as red hot inflation in the US stoked bets that the Fed may have to raise interest rates much more than expected, even 100 basis points.”
ICICI asserted, “Additionally, consistent FII outflows and concerns on looming recession may hurt the rupee” while pointing out that Rupee-Dollar is expected to trade in the range of 79.50-80 in July future.
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Jateen Trivedi, Researcher at LKP Securities, said, “As the higher inflation shall put added pressure on Fed to raise the rates around 0.75 per cent, the Dollar index rallied above 108.30 level weakening other currencies. Rupee may trade in the 79.50-80 range.”
